Vulnerability, Human Behaviour, Hazards and Expected Utility in the Context of Risk Management “The case of Limpopo River Basin in Mozambique”

In this paper we use four main dimensions: Vulnerability, Human Behaviour, Hazards and Expected Utility to analyze their impact in scenario planning when cross-matched with Human Development Adjusted, Gender Inequality and Multidimensional Poverty Indexes within flood risk management strategies. We argue that the four dimensions are among the central factors behind the poor quality of life. Hence, we propose a backcasting method for a scenario planning and based on sustainable principles at long run to provide a desired and better quality of life as a contribution by the human beings in reducing vulnerability to risk and exposure to hazards. In doing so, we address best practices toward utility improvement and behaviour paradigm shift as a novel approach for participatory strategic thinking in the Multicriteria Decision Analysis for integrating flood risk management strategies related to Limpopo River Basin.